Rafael Guanaes: The Miracle of Mirassol, or the Masterclass of Mirassol…
Introduction
Rafael Guanaes led Mirassol Futebol Clube to a fourth-place finish in the Brazilian top-flight in the 2025 season. This secured a historic debut place in the Copa Libertadores (South American equivalent of the UEFA Champions League). For a club competing in the sixth tier of Brazilian football less than 15 years ago, the rise understandably garnered attention. It has been labelled a “miracle” by Sky Sports journalist Adam Bates. Of course, this is merely a punchy headline, rather than an underappreciation of Rafael’s work. The word miracle suggests surprise and romance in a sport that does annoyingly well at resisting neat explanations. Adam’s brilliant interview with Rafael motivated me to apply my psychological mind to this inspiring story. So, through the lens of culture literature, particularly the works of Dr Andrew Cruickshank and Professor Dave Collins, a far deeper, compelling question emerges: was this really a miracle, or was it the outcome of deliberate and sustained cultural engineering within an elite performance environment?
Appointment
Results under Guanaes were poor at first. Mirassol struggled for points, with only one win in their first seven games in the 2025 campaign. In Europe, particularly England, it feels as fans we have become accustomed (perhaps even numb) to sackings. One win in seven in the Premier League would have alarm bells ringing with hysterical glee. Mirassol, however, resisted a reactionary sacking. The board maintained trust in Guanaes, and the team ultimately responded with a notable turnaround. They defeated seven-time Brazilian champions Corinthians before going unbeaten in eight, winning six. From there, a sustained climb towards the top of the league blossomed.
There lies the first psychological shift. Not in the players, or even in Guanaes’ management. It lies in the organisation’s directorial-level tolerance for instability in honour of developing a culture beyond results. Placing that trust in Rafael, backing his values, and aligning themselves with him is real-world evidence of the theory that influential individuals buying into and reflecting intended cultural ideals can be an effective strategy. The fans, the board, and the media have an impact on the fate of managers. By unifying these stakeholders, Mirassol began to see the fruits of their labour.
Solving the cube
Sport psychology literature, particularly the work of Cruickshank and Collins, emphasises that elite performance environments aren’t built through slogans. They are constructed through consistent cultural reinforcement across time, people, and pressurised situations. Simply, culture isn’t what a team says its culture is; culture is what the team displays when their values are under stress.
Guanaes appears to operate within this logic. In his interview with Bates, Rafael described adapting his communication to each player: “As a leader, I have to know just the right way to deliver my ideas in the way that is working best for each player.” This reflects a key principle in performance culture design: the regulation and transmission of compatible beliefs through individualised communication strategies. Cruickshank and Collins argue that effective cultures aren’t just imposed uniformly but rather constructed through careful calibration of messages across an organisation of individuals.
Rafael taking the time to study his players as individuals, deciphering a way to deliver the same message differently to each one, is a wonderful example of visualising complex culture theory in action. Think of a Rubik’s Cube. It isn’t solved holistically; it’s solved through sequential, compartmentalised actions. Each intricate move places individual sections in optimal locations for completion. Similarly, Guanaes appears to treat his players as an algorithmic step within a larger system, ensuring an eventual alignment of a collective.
Shared values
Cruickshank highlights “shared performance-optimising values, standards and practices” as cornerstones of successful sporting cultures. In his interview with Bates, Guanaes was explicit about this: “We had to be the team with the highest work rate in the championship. I made sure they knew it.” The key distinction here can be easily missed by coaches when motivating, and in mainstream football analysis; stating something is not the same as embedding it.
Rafael said something, but that doesn’t mean he’s implementing change. Having a mere philosophical motto or ideology isn’t enough. Positive culture comes from reinforcement of the behaviours that underpin said philosophy. Look at Tottenham’s “To Dare Is to Do”. Currently, they are daring to flirt with relegation and nothing more.
What’s important in the case of Mirassol is what Guanaes said next: “Each week, I went to the physio to see the intensity numbers, as I wanted us to press really high.” Guanaes was monitoring intensity data weekly, working with the wider multidisciplinary team to check whether training and match behaviours reflected his stated identity. What this creates is a feedback loop within the environment:
a value is communicated;
a behaviour is monitored and measured;
the behaviour is reinforced/corrected as players realise those not performing won’t be selected.
In psychological terms, it’s not yet intrinsic motivation (the drive to engage in an activity due to personal enjoyment/satisfaction rather than external reward), but it’s a whole system design whereby players understand the manager’s performance culture. Guanaes later acknowledges that Mirassol don’t have the best squad, but a shared mentality is a far more powerful tool than a bunch of superstars who won’t “die for the badge”.
The individuality paradox of Brazilian football
In Brazil, much to the world’s entertainment (and heartbreak), individual brilliance takes precedence. The Brazilian style has long been associated with improvisation, flair, individuality, and technical freedom. It’s a culture shaped by players inspiring generations to try those flicks and tricks that Sunday league managers unleash their angry fury over.
Brazil’s flair oozes and embeds into the minds of football fans; the ghosts of their players haunting us are incessantly present. Ronaldinho’s free kick in 2002 against England, Kaká toying with Manchester United in 2007, making Patrice Evra and Gabriel Heinze collide in one undignified mess.
Guanaes is therefore working against a paradox: wanting to build a collective structure in a culture defined by individual expression. His answer was not to suppress individuality but to integrate it. By describing Mirassol as a “living organism”, he implies a certain interdependence where players aren’t constrained but are connected. When a central defender knows why their positioning triggers the central midfielder to come deep to collect the ball, and the central midfielder knows to come deep because of the defender’s positioning, the team is operating as a single organism.
This is where sport psychology intersects with tactical design. Role clarity and understanding reduce cognitive load on players, freeing their minds to focus on individual brilliance within a stable framework. As long as that central midfielder does come in deep to collect the ball, then there is nothing stopping them from whipping out a 30-yard diagonal rabona pass once they’ve got it. Just to express themselves!
Making it all too neat?
If you haven’t read it (which I highly suggest you do, of course: https://www.harveysportpsychology.com/underthetent), I feel that perhaps my last article lacked an alternate perspective. Something I’ll introduce going forward. I’m not writing these to claim psychology is omniscient and can explain or answer everything. I’m writing them to hopefully educate you slightly on how impactful it can be, particularly in elite sport.
Without further ado, there are explanations for success that don’t rely heavily on psychological framing. Firstly, structural investment. Whilst they don’t have the financial power of clubs typically at the top of the Brazilian first division, the club’s directors made a significant effort to improve operational efficiency in 2021. For example, they invested in solar energy to power their training facilities, meaning monetary resources saved on energy could be redirected into football development. That really does matter; culture doesn’t exist in isolation from a solid infrastructure.
Further, there’s always a risk that success gets explained backwards. Hindsight is a very wonderful tool, and writing this article with the knowledge that Mirassol finished fourth makes it easy to suggest what might have contributed to their success. All you need to note is that while Guanaes clearly delivers a compelling model from a psychological perspective, it’s not the only available lens for explaining the success. With that being said, an entire dismissal of psychology’s role would be equally ignorant and incomplete.
Mirassol’s success is distinguishable beyond results by a consistency of approach under uncertainty. Their coherent behavioural identity eventually paid dividends. The beauty of sport psychology is that it interacts with tactical and structural explanations; it doesn’t aim nor try to replace them. Culture shapes how the team behaves where tactics and structure may fluctuate.
The present and beyond…
Mirassol have endured difficulties in the 2026 season thus far. Yet, all seven of their league defeats have been by a one-goal margin, with five of them 1–0. As ever, football is a game of terrifyingly fine margins. Missed chances, deflections, and momentary lapses in concentration can distort perception and shift entire narratives.
In their Copa Libertadores debut, Mirassol were able to defeat their Argentine opponents 1–0. With three games now played and two clean sheets, they currently sit second in their group stage table, in a qualification position for the round of 16.
Here we see the ebbs and flows of elite sport in full swing. Yes, success can be built through alignment and strong communication of values. However, inconsistency reminds us that football never fully submits to structure. Culture will always guide behaviour and reduce chaos, but it can never remove variance or said chaos.
So, stepping back and viewing Mirassol’s journey with Guanaes in full, it becomes increasingly difficult to accept a single explanation. From early instability, to aligned growth, to present fine-margin struggles, miracle feels insufficient, yet a purely structural or tactical explanation also feels incomplete.
Instead, what emerges is a club that resisted reaction at the top, a manager who individualised communication within a collective framework, and an environment where values were not only stated but systematically reinforced. Perhaps the real intrigue lies here: not in whether Mirassol’s rise can be explained entirely, but in how much can be explained before football reasserts its apathetic chaos.
What happened at Guanaes’ Mirassol wasn’t simply a run of results, nor a fleeting moment of overperformance. We saw a culture strong enough to shape behaviour and withstand pressure, for a time, bending outcomes in its favour. We saw a culture so effective and aligned that, from the outside, it appeared to defy a reasonable explanation. The football world hailed it… a miracle.
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Source material
Bates, A. (2026, April 6). Miracle of Mirassol: Rafael Guanaes ready for Copa Libertadores bid after Football Manager inspired success in Brazil. https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13528352/miracle-of-mirassol-rafael-guanaes-ready-for-copa-libertadores-bid-after-football-manager-inspired-success-in-brazil
Cruickshank, A. (2013). Delivering culture change in elite sport performance teams: a first exploration. [Philosophical Doctorate Thesis, University of Central Lancashire]. Lancashire Online Knowledge.
Cruickshank, A., & Collins, D. (2012). Culture change in elite sport performance teams: examining and advancing effectiveness in the new era. Journal of Applied Sport Psychology, 24(3), 338–355. https://doi.org/10.1080/10413200.2011.650819
Hien, H. (2025, November 10). Mirassol, the sensation team of the Brazilian Championship, has been investing in solar energy since 2021. CanalSolar. https://canalsolar.com.br/en/Mirassol-Brazilian-Championship-Solar-Energy/